AP Oscar predictions: What will win, what should win

Ahead of Sunday’s 91st Academy Awards, Associated Press film writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle share their predictions for a ceremony with few sure things.

BEST PICTURE

The Nominees: “Black Panther,” ”BlacKkKlansman,” ”Bohemian Rhapsody,” ”The Favourite,” ”Green Book,” ”Roma,” ”A Star Is Born,” ”Vice”

BAHR:

Will Win: “Roma”

Should Win: “A Star Is Born”

COYLE:

Will Win: “Roma”

Should Win: “Black Panther”

BEST ACTRESS

The Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”; Glenn Close, “The Wife”; Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”; Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”; Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

BAHR:

Will Win: Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Should Win: Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”

COYLE:

Will Win: Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Should Win: Glenn Close, “The Wife”

BEST ACTOR

The Nominees: Christian Bale, “Vice”; Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”; Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”; Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”; Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

BAHR:

Will Win: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Should Win: Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”

COYLE

Will Win: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Should Win: Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Nominees: Amy Adams, “Vice”; Marina de Tavira, “Roma”; Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”; Emma Stone, “The Favourite”; Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

BAHR:

Will Win: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Should Win: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

COYLE:

Will Win: Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Should Win: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Nominees: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”; Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”; Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”; Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”; Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

BAHR:

Will Win: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”

Should Win: Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”

COYLE

Will Win: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”

Should Win: Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

DIRECTOR

The Nominees: Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”; Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”; Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”; Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”; Adam McKay, “Vice”

BAHR:

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”

Should Win: Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”

COYLE

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”

Should Win: Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Nominees: “The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara; “First Reformed,” Paul Schrader; “Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly; “Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón; “Vice,” Adam McKay

BAHR

Will Win: “The Favourite”

Should Win: “The Favourite”

COYLE

Will Win: “Green Book”

Should Win: “First Reformed”

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Nominees: “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen; “BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee; “Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty; “If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins; “A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

BAHR

Will Win: “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Should Win: “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

COYLE

Will Win: “BlacKkKlansman”

Should Win: “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”

DOCUMENTARY

The Nominees: “Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi; “Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross; “Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu; “Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki; “RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen

BAHR

Will Win: “RBG”

Should Win: “Minding the Gap”

COYLE:

Will Win: “Free Solo”

Should Win: “Hale County This Morning, This Evening”

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Nominees: “Capernaum” (Lebanon); “Cold War” (Poland); “Never Look Away” (Germany); “Roma” (Mexico); “Shoplifters” (Japan)

BAHR

Will Win: “Cold War”

Should Win: “Cold War”

COYLE

Will Win: “Roma”

Should Win: “Shoplifters”

ANIMATED FEATURE

The Nominees: “Incredibles 2,” ”Isle of Dogs,” ”Mirai,” ”Ralph Breaks the Internet,” ”Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,”

BAHR

Will Win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

Should Win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

COYLE

Will Win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

Should Win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

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Follow Lindsey Bahr on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/ldbahr and Jake Coyle at http://twitter.com/jakecoyleAP

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You can find a fuller version of this story here: http://apne.ws/sQSzzJW

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For full coverage of the Oscars, visit: https://apnews.com/AcademyAwards

Copyright © 2019 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, written or redistributed.

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