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Greenspan mulls roots of crisis he didn't foresee

Tuesday - 10/22/2013, 7:36am  ET

MARTIN CRUTSINGER
AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- For 18½ years as Federal Reserve chairman, he was celebrated for helping drive a robust U.S. economy. Yet in the years after he stepped down in 2006, he was engulfed by accusations that he helped cause the 2008 financial crisis -- the worst since the 1930's.

Now, Alan Greenspan has struck back at any notion that he -- or anyone -- could have known how or when to defuse the threats that triggered the crisis. He argues in a new book, "The Map and the Territory," that traditional economic forecasting is no match for the irrational risk-taking that can inflate catastrophic price bubbles in assets like homes or tech stocks.

In an interview Sunday with The Associated Press, Greenspan reflected on his book, his Fed tenure and the risks that still endanger the financial system. Relaxed and looking fit at 87, he spoke for an hour in the sunroom of his house overlooking a wooded hillside of Northwest Washington. It's a home he shares with his wife, Andrea Mitchell, the NBC News anchor and chief foreign affairs correspondent.

Surrounded by books of presidential and financial history, Greenspan acknowledged some errors of judgment as Fed chair. But he said he saw no reason to downgrade his own assessment of his tenure.

"Our record was fairly good," he said.

He expressed relief at having finally ended an intense 18 months of work on his book. Now, it's on to talk-show chats with the likes of Jon Stewart and Charlie Rose.

Greenspan offers high praise for Janet Yellen, President Barack Obama's choice to lead the Fed starting in January. As a member of the Fed's board in Washington, Greenspan recalled, Yellen sometimes helped him better grasp "what this academic is saying."

He says he still plays tennis regularly -- singles as well as doubles. And he seems as much a man of the 21st century as he is of the 20th: In search of his iPhone, he twice asked a staffer where it might be.

Reaching back nostalgically to the Republican administration of Gerald Ford, when he led the president's Council of Economic Advisers, Greenspan remembers a different Washington. He recalls it as a time when political leaders dared to trust their opponents and collaborated to reach common goals.

It didn't hurt, Greenspan said, that the Democratic speaker of the House, Thomas P. "Tip" O'Neill, would drop by the West Wing of the White House some nights "and have a bourbon with Jerry."

Here are excerpts of the Greenspan interview, edited for length and clarity:

Q: You write that you were shaken by the 2008 financial crisis because of the failure of one of the pillars of a stable financial market -- "rational financial risk management." What did you discover in your research for the book about this issue?

A: Fear and euphoria are dominant forces, and fear is many multiples the size of euphoria. Bubbles go up very slowly as euphoria builds. Then fear hits, and it comes down very sharply. When I started to look at that, I was sort of intellectually shocked. Contagion is the critical phenomenon which causes the thing to fall apart.

Q: When you published your last book, "Age of Turbulence," in 2007, you were being hailed as a "maestro" of the global economy. Then the worst financial crisis since the 1930s erupted. Your policies as Fed chair were blamed for sowing the seeds for that crisis. How did the criticism affect you personally?

A: I've been around long enough to know that a good deal of the praise heaped on me I had nothing to do with. The only thing I did object to was the fact that where the criticism was actually wrong. Did it bother me? Of course it bothered me. But I've been around long enough to have ups and down. So you get over it.

Q: With the knowledge you gained from the financial crisis, has it changed your own assessment of how well you performed as Fed chairman?

A: The real question is, should I have done something different? And the answer to that question is no. Did we make mistakes? You bet we made mistakes. But I thought our record was fairly good. Remember, we stepped in, probably at just the right time after Oct. 19, 1987, when the market went down 22 percent. It was pretty rocky for awhile, but I thought we maneuvered that better than I expected we would be able to do. There were a lot of things of that nature where I thought we did well. And there were other things we didn't do well.

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